| |
| |
| @thecltmortgageguy |
Vol 1 · Iss 16 · July 10, 2026 |
| |
| The Weekly |
| |
| THE WEEKLY WRAP |
| |
| Rates. Market intel. What it means for you. |
| |
|
| |
| |
| Welcome Back |
| |
| Oil Moved the Market. Rates Followed. |
| |
| Thank you to everyone who joined Tuesday's call for the Self Employed Buyer's Handbook. We walked through the loan options available to self employed borrowers and the things you can do as an agent to improve the odds that a self employed client gets approved. It is one of the most common places a strong buyer gets underestimated, and the room asked great questions. If you missed it, the recording is posted on my Linktree at linktr.ee/thecltmortgageguy. I appreciate this community showing up week after week to get better at helping people into homes. |
| |
| |
| |
| Market Update |
| |
| A Midweek Oil Shock, Then a Thursday Recovery. |
| |
| 30-yr Fixed |
| |
| 6.49% |
| |
| ↑ Up from 6.43% |
|
| Rate Direction |
| |
| Up |
| |
| Oil pressure, inflation risk |
|
|
| |
| The week opened in a good place. The June employment report showed the economy added 57,000 jobs, well under what economists expected, and the prior two months were revised down by a combined 74,000. Unemployment ticked down to 4.2%, though that was driven more by people leaving the workforce than by new hiring. Wage growth stayed contained at 3.5% over the past year, which tells investors that paychecks are not going to reignite inflation. Mortgage bonds liked all of it, and Monday and Tuesday were quiet. |
| |
| Then Wednesday happened. Escalation in the conflict with Iran sent oil up roughly five dollars a barrel to just under $76, and the entire market repriced around one question: does more expensive energy mean more inflation? Stocks sold off hard, the benchmark rate that mortgages track climbed to 4.59%, and mortgage bonds fell sharply. When mortgage bonds fall, mortgage rates rise. The Fed's June meeting notes came out the same afternoon and showed a genuinely divided committee, with some members expecting inflation to keep cooling and others worried that tariffs and energy costs keep it sticky. The takeaway was patience, not direction. |
| |
| Thursday brought some of it back. Oil gave up part of its gains, stocks rallied, and mortgage bonds firmed up. But the damage to the weekly average was already done. Freddie Mac reported the 30 year fixed at 6.49%, up from 6.43% the week before, because their survey window closed right as the selloff hit. Here is the honest read for your buyers: rates are stuck in the same mid 6% range they have been in for weeks, and the thing moving them right now is a war and a barrel of oil, not the housing market. Next week's inflation report is the next real catalyst. |
| |
| |
Your buyer cannot control oil prices or the Fed. They can control their credit score. That is where the real leverage is right now. |
|
| |
| |
| |
| This Tuesday · Noon ET |
| |
| Credit Scores: What Actually Moves the Needle |
| |
| A twenty point swing can be the difference between a buyer qualifying and a buyer waiting, and most of what people believe about credit is wrong. On Tuesday we are covering what genuinely moves a score inside of thirty days, the myths that cost your clients money, and the moves a buyer should never make once they are under contract. Then we are zooming out to the long game, because the client who is not ready to buy today is the client you close a year from now if someone gives them a plan. If you have a buyer sitting at 640 wondering what it takes to get to 680, come to this one. You will walk away knowing exactly what to tell them. |
| |
| Drop in Tuesday at noon. No booking needed. Zoom link at linktr.ee/thecltmortgageguy. Bring a real scenario and we will work it live. Have a topic for a future call? Just reply to this email. |
| |
| |
| |
| See you Tuesday. For daily rate updates follow @thecltmortgageguy on Instagram. |
| |
| Join the call, and as always, if you have a client who needs an approval, I am available. Call or text me at 704-458-0526, or grab everything at linktr.ee/thecltmortgageguy. |
| |
|
|
| |
| thecltmortgageguy.com · NMLS #1465241 |
| |
| |
| |
| Ian Smith · VP of Lending · Rate · [email protected] · linktr.ee/thecltmortgageguy · @thecltmortgageguy · NMLS #1465241 · Equal Housing Lender |
| |
| © 2026 Guaranteed Rate, Inc. D/B/A Rate | NMLS ID 2611 |
| |