| |
| |
| @thecltmortgageguy |
Vol 1 · Iss 18 · July 24, 2026 |
| |
| The Weekly |
| |
| THE WEEKLY WRAP |
| |
| Rates. Market intel. What it means for you. |
| |
|
| |
| |
| Welcome Back |
| |
| A Loud Week in the Market. Prepared Deals Still Won. |
| |
| Thank you for another great week. On Tuesday we walked through renovation financing and how the updated rules make a tired listing a whole lot easier to move, and the questions that came in were sharp. Then the market got noisy. Oil headlines took over, rates pushed higher, and the files that stayed calm were the ones with a plan behind them. That is really the whole point of this letter and the Tuesday call. When the market moves, preparation is what keeps a good deal a good deal, and there is still plenty of good business getting done out there. |
| |
| |
| |
| Market Update |
| |
| Oil Grabbed the Wheel, and Rates Followed. |
| |
| 30-yr Fixed |
| |
| 6.58% |
| |
| ↑ Up from 6.55% |
|
| Rate Direction |
| |
| Up |
| |
| Energy prices leading |
|
|
| |
| Rates came into the week with real momentum after the prior week's cooler inflation reports, and then the story flipped quickly. Monday opened under pressure as renewed tension around Yemen and the Red Sea shipping lanes pushed oil sharply higher. By Wednesday the benchmark interest rate that mortgages track was testing its highest level of the year, with mortgage bonds selling off for a fourth straight day. Thursday brought the sharpest move, as Brent crude briefly touched one hundred dollars a barrel and mortgage bonds gave back more ground. |
| |
| The reason is simpler than the headlines make it sound. Energy prices feed straight into inflation, and inflation is the one thing mortgage rates react to most. When oil runs, investors start to doubt that inflation keeps cooling, so they ask for a higher return to hold mortgage bonds, and that pushes mortgage rates up. Traders also shifted their read on the Fed this week, moving away from cuts later this year and toward the possibility of another hike. Freddie Mac's weekly average finished at 6.58 percent, up from 6.55 percent. |
| |
| Here is the part worth passing along. Over the last two weeks my capital markets team flagged the geopolitical risk building in the background, and I locked my entire pipeline on that warning. Every one of those clients is protected from this week's move. If you have a buyer whose loan came apart because their rate changed, send them my way and I will give the file a second review. There is almost always a path forward, and it usually comes down to structure rather than luck. |
| |
| |
You cannot control the rate. You can control the lock, the structure, and how early the conversation starts. |
|
| |
| |
| |
| This Tuesday · Noon ET |
| |
| Same Seller Dollar. Very Different Payment. |
| |
| Sellers are giving money back again, and that is good news for your buyers if the offer is built the right way. The same seller dollar can go toward a price cut, a temporary rate buydown, a permanent rate buydown, or a closing cost credit, and those four choices land very differently on the monthly payment. With rates near their highs for the year, knowing which one to ask for is often the difference between a payment that works and a buyer who walks. Here is what we are covering on Tuesday. |
| |
| • |
The temporary buydown. The seller funds a lower payment for the first two years while your buyer settles into the home. This is the one getting the most traction right now because it delivers real relief at current rates without asking the buyer to bet the whole deal on a future refinance. |
| |
| • |
The permanent buydown. Those same seller dollars can lower the rate for the life of the loan instead. When a buyer plans to stay put for a while, this often produces the most savings per dollar the seller gives up, and it keeps working long after the headlines calm down. |
| |
| • |
The price reduction. Easiest to negotiate and easiest for a seller to understand, and sometimes it is exactly right. It is also the option where a dollar off the price usually moves the monthly payment the least, which is worth knowing before you ask for one. |
| |
| • |
The closing cost credit. The right call when your buyer is tight on cash to close rather than tight on payment. Different problem, different fix, and matching the two correctly is half the game. |
| |
| • |
Why this matters right now. Inventory is up, homes are sitting longer, and rates just pushed to the top of their range. Plenty of sellers will say yes to a concession before they say yes to a price cut, because one protects their number and the other does not. Asking the right way gets your buyer a better payment and gets the listing agent a cleaner story. |
|
| |
| Drop in Tuesday at noon. No booking needed. Zoom link at linktr.ee/thecltmortgageguy. Bring a live scenario and we will run all three side by side on the call. Have a topic for a future call? Just reply to this email. |
| |
| |
| |
| See you Tuesday. For daily rate updates follow @thecltmortgageguy on Instagram. |
| |
| Book a consult or grab the Zoom link at linktr.ee/thecltmortgageguy. |
| |
|
|
| |
| thecltmortgageguy.com · NMLS #1465241 |
| |
| |
| |
| Ian Smith · VP of Lending · Rate · [email protected] · linktr.ee/thecltmortgageguy · @thecltmortgageguy · NMLS #1465241 · Equal Housing Lender |
| |
| © 2026 Guaranteed Rate, Inc. D/B/A Rate | NMLS ID 2611 |
| |