01 · Welcome Back
Rates Surprised Us, and Tuesdays Are Changing
Welcome back, and happy Friday. This week didn’t follow the script: every big inflation report ran hot, yet bonds rallied Thursday, and Freddie Mac’s 30-year average held at 7.40%. The Market Update below walks through what happened and what to tell your clients.
Weeks like this are exactly when your clients have questions, and you need answers you can pass along fast. That’s why Tuesday Mortgage Chat, our noon Zoom, is coming to an end, and short, shareable videos are taking its place. It’s become apparent that many of you value short videos you can share, and the Zooms are just too long to share with clients. I’ve heard you and I’ve listened, and I will be making the change moving forward.
Here’s what you get: one topic per video, in plain English, ready to text to a buyer or send to a seller the moment they ask.
To everyone who joined at noon, asked a question, or brought a real scenario: thank you. You made those calls what they were, and I’m grateful for every one of you. Every past Tuesday Mortgage Chat replay is still on my Linktree, so any topic is there whenever a deal calls for it.
02 · Market Update
Inflation Ran Hot, but Rates Caught a Break Thursday
Rates came into the week high. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate to 4.00% in September, and on Tuesday, Fed Governor Waller said high long-term rates are already cooling the housing market and that the Fed may pause before raising rates again. A pause, though, isn’t the same as rates coming down.
Wednesday brought the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the monthly report on what consumers pay. Forecasters expected prices to be up 3.6% from a year ago, compared with 3.4% in August. The surprise was core inflation, which leaves out food and energy: it rose 0.3% for the month when 0.2% was expected, putting it 2.6% higher than a year ago instead of the 2.5% forecasters were looking for. Gasoline drove more than half of the overall increase, and housing costs stayed stubborn.
Mortgage bonds, the investments that drive the rates your buyers are quoted, dropped about a full point in the first hour after the report. That’s a big, fast move. Then stocks fell, investors moved money into safer investments, and mortgage bonds won all of it back by the afternoon.
Thursday is where it got interesting. By then, the week’s big reports had all come in hot: consumer prices, business prices (the Producer Price Index, or PPI), and retail sales. Normally, that’s bad news for rates. Instead, bonds rallied. Investors got nervous that stocks tied to artificial intelligence (AI) were overpriced, pulled money out of riskier investments, and moved it into the safety of bonds. In plain English, they’re worrying more about the economy slowing down than about inflation. The 10-year Treasury yield, the interest rate on the government’s 10-year bonds and the number mortgage rates tend to follow, fell back near 5%, and it was one of the best days for mortgage bonds in weeks. Whether it lasts is still an open question.
Freddie Mac’s weekly average, released Thursday, held the 30-year fixed at 7.40%, unchanged from last week, and nudged the 15-year fixed down to 6.71% from 6.73%. That average covers loan applications from the prior Thursday through Wednesday, so it doesn’t include Thursday’s rally.
What to tell clients who ask: The 30-year fixed is averaging 7.40%, but this week showed rates don’t only move on inflation news. When investors get nervous, money moves into bonds, and rates can get better even in a hot inflation week. Buyers who are waiting for a big drop before they start should get a fully underwritten approval now, so they’re ready to write a strong offer when a better day comes.
03 · Recap
Recap: Vetting the Buyer’s Lender
On our October 13 call, we talked about vetting the buyer’s lender when you’re the listing agent. When an offer comes in and the letter says “pre-approved,” here’s what to check before you count on that financing:
“Pre-approved” can mean three different things. A pre-qualification, a pre-approval, and an underwritten approval can all show up as “pre-approved,” with very different amounts of checking behind each one.
Read the letter. Look for terms that match the offer, a real loan officer with a name, NMLS number, and direct phone, and a current date. Wording like “based on information provided” is a red flag.
Call the loan officer. Ask whether credit, income, and assets have been verified, whether the file has been through underwriting, and whether they can close on your date.
Confirm the loan program. Whether it’s conventional, FHA, VA, or something else, make sure it fits the price, down payment, and any seller credits in the contract.
The property has to qualify, too. Every loan type’s appraisal looks at condition, not just FHA or VA, and flagged repairs can hold up the loan.
Missed it, or want a refresher before your next listing goes under contract? Watch the full replay on YouTube. Every past Tuesday Mortgage Chat, from VA loans and appraisals to buydowns and assumables, is on my Linktree too, so you can watch any topic whenever a deal calls for it.
Have a topic you want me to cover? Just reply to this email. I read every one.
Thank you for every Tuesday. Daily updates on Instagram at @thecltmortgageguy, past Tuesday calls on YouTube, and intros, consults, or every past replay at linktr.ee/thecltmortgageguy.
Ian Smith · VP of Lending, Rate
[email protected] · linktr.ee/thecltmortgageguy · @thecltmortgageguy
Ian Smith, NMLS #1465241 · Equal Housing Lender / © 2026 Guaranteed Rate, Inc. D/B/A Rate · NMLS ID 2611 / Rates shown are illustrative, subject to change, and are not a commitment to lend. Educational only; not legal or tax advice. Loan guidelines vary by program and lender, and not all applicants will qualify.