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01
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Welcome Back / The Open
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Great Turnout, a Big Week in the Market, and a Topic You Won't Want to Miss.
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T
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hank you to everyone who joined me on Tuesday's call. We had a great group and covered first time home buyer options, talking through the programs and strategies that can help more people get into homes. Showing up week in and week out means everything, and I do not take it for granted.
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02
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Market Update / This Week
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The Most Divided Fed in 33 Years Just Rattled the Bond Market
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Vital Signs · Week of May 1
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30-yr Trend
6.23%
↑ Post-Fed pressure
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Rate Direction
Up
Sharp selling post-Fed
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Watching Next
Jobs Report
Out this morning
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The
read
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Wednesday's Fed meeting ended with a vote of 8 to 4 to keep the benchmark interest rate in its current range. That split, the largest since 1992, was the real story. Three regional Fed presidents pushed to remove the language suggesting that rate cuts were still coming. One governor pushed in the opposite direction and voted for an actual cut. The statement that came out of that room satisfied almost nobody, and it sent a clear message: patience is no longer pointing in one direction.
Mortgage bonds sold off sharply after the decision. The benchmark interest rate pushed to a one-month high, and expectations for cuts this year continued to evaporate. Futures markets are now focused on whether the next Fed move happens later than expected or not at all. Energy prices added more pressure after President Trump pledged to maintain the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil higher and reigniting inflation concerns that had been cooling through much of April.
There is one more layer to all of this: Wednesday was widely viewed as Fed Chair Powell's final meeting in the chair, with Kevin Warsh on track to take the reins. The bond market is treating that leadership transition seriously. For buyers and agents heading into May, expect rate volatility to stay elevated until the picture on energy and the incoming Fed leadership becomes clearer. Today's jobs report is the first major data point the market processes in that new context, and the number matters.
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"The bond market doesn't care about the vote count. It cares about what the votes mean. Right now, they mean higher for longer."
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03
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The Topic / Live Tuesday
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The Appraisal Came In Low. Here's How to Keep the Deal Alive.
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A.
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What a Seller Credit Actually Does
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B.
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The Appraisal Gap Clause
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C.
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Requesting a Reconsideration of Value
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D.
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Structuring the Deal When the Gap Holds
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Tue
12:00
Live
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Join me for Tuesday Mortgage Chat with Ian at noon. No booking required. Zoom link is in my Linktree at linktr.ee/thecltmortgageguy. Bring your toughest appraisal scenario and we'll work through it live.
Have a topic you want covered on a future call? Reply to this email and send it over. The best calls come from your questions.
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04
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Stay in the Loop / Daily
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Real-time updates between issues.
This newsletter comes once a week, but the market moves every day. I put rate updates, quick takes, and market news on my Instagram stories in real time so you're never waiting on the next issue to know what's happening.
Follow me on Instagram at @thecltmortgageguy for the latest and greatest as it happens. Stories are where I post the quick hits between newsletters.
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Every Tuesday · Noon ET
Tuesday Mortgage Chat with Ian
Drop in every Tuesday at noon. No booking, no agenda, just show up with your questions. Buyers, scenarios, rate questions, market updates, anything. Free and open every week without exception.
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One Tap Away
Everything you need
is one tap away.
Book a consult, join Tuesday's call, or watch the recap.
Open My Linktree →
thecltmortgageguy.com · NMLS #1465241
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