The Weekly Wrap | A Thursday Rally for Rates, Plus Which Pre-Approval Will Actually Close?

Welcome back, and happy Friday. I’ll be honest: this was one of those weeks when I checked the bond market more often than my text messages. It took until Thursday, but rates finally gave us something to feel good about.

First, mark your calendar for this Tuesday, October 13, at noon. Three offers land on your listing, and all three say “pre-approved.” How do you tell which one will actually close? That’s our next Tuesday Mortgage Chat: vetting the buyer’s lender when you’re the listing agent. It’s 15 to 20 minutes and free on Zoom, and you can grab the link on my Linktree.

Also inside: the week’s rate story in plain English and a recap of this week’s call on divorce and real estate, with the replay.

The week started with a little hope. Last Friday’s jobs report came in soft: employers added just 29,000 jobs, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. A cooling job market usually helps rates, and it did, but only briefly. By Monday, investors were selling bonds again.

Why that matters: mortgage rates tend to follow the 10-year Treasury yield, which is the interest rate on the government’s 10-year bonds. When investors sell bonds, that rate goes up. By Wednesday, the 10-year yield was back above 5.3%, the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2002, and mortgage rates were sitting in the mid-7% range.

Midweek brought two quieter wins. Mortgage bonds, which drive the rates your buyers are quoted, held up better than Treasuries. And the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting held no surprises: officials stood behind their September rate hike and plan to keep rates high for longer.

Thursday turned it around. After a shaky morning, mortgage bonds finished the day higher, and interest rates on government bonds fell across the board. The government’s sales of new 10-year and 30-year bonds drew strong demand, a sign that investors are comfortable buying at these higher rates. Tension with Iran also eased after President Trump said further military action would be delayed until after the midterm elections, and oil prices came off their highs.

Next week brings two big inflation reports: the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks what consumers pay, and the Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks what businesses pay. Either one can move rates quickly.

What to tell clients who ask: Rates are still in the mid-7% range, but Thursday was a reminder that they can improve quickly when the news turns. Next week’s inflation reports could push them either way, so it's a good week to keep buyers in close touch with their lender.

On Tuesday’s call, we broke down what agents should watch for when a sale or refinance runs through a divorce. Three takeaways from the replay that most agents don’t know:

Missed it, or want a refresher before your next one? Watch the full replay on YouTube. Every past Tuesday Mortgage Chat, from VA loans and appraisals to buydowns and assumables, is on my Linktree too, so you can watch any topic whenever a deal calls for it.

Have a topic for a future call? Just reply to this email. I read every one.

See you Tuesday. Daily updates on Instagram at @thecltmortgageguy, past Tuesday calls on YouTube, and intros, consults, or the Tuesday Zoom link at linktr.ee/thecltmortgageguy.

Ian Smith · VP of Lending, Rate
[email protected] · linktr.ee/thecltmortgageguy · @thecltmortgageguy
Ian Smith, NMLS #1465241 · Equal Housing Lender / © 2026 Guaranteed Rate, Inc. D/B/A Rate · NMLS ID 2611 / Rates shown are illustrative, subject to change, and are not a commitment to lend. Educational only; not legal or tax advice. Loan guidelines vary by program and lender, and not all applicants will qualify.